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Arcos vs Xerez Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Arcos
Arcos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Xerez Deportivo
Xerez Deportivo
1/31/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 12Estadio Antonio Barbadillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Arcos33%
×Draw30%
Xerez Deportivo38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arcos
1.01
Xerez Deportivo
1.11

Xerez Deportivo creates 10% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 43 away

creates per match

Arcos
0.97
Xerez Deportivo
1.33

allows per match

Arcos
0.90
Xerez Deportivo
1.05

finishing

Arcos+0.00on par
Xerez Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arcos ↓

Xerez Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Arcos or draw
62%
Arcos or Xerez Deportivo
70%
Draw or Xerez Deportivo
67%

Winning margin

Arcos wins by 2+
12%
Xerez Deportivo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Arcos 1+ goals
64%
Arcos 2+ goals
27%
Arcos 3+ goals
8%
Xerez Deportivo 1+ goals
67%
Xerez Deportivo 2+ goals
30%
Xerez Deportivo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Arcos (draw refunded)
46%
Xerez Deportivo (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arcos at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.90 · 29 matches

Xerez Deportivo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arcos attack 0.97 + Xerez Deportivo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.01

Xerez Deportivo attack 1.33 + Arcos defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Arcos scores more
33%
level
30%
Xerez Deportivo scores more
38%

Xerez Deportivo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Xerez Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Arcos 1–1 Xerez Deportivo

Arcos and Xerez Deportivo drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on January 31, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Barbadillo in Arcos de la Frontera.