Xerez Deportivo 3–0 AD Ceuta FC: Result & Stats

Xerez Deportivo

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

AD Ceuta FC

2/14/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 13Estadio Municipal de Chapín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Xerez Deportivo57%

×Draw25%

AD Ceuta FC18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Xerez DeportivoExpected goals in this matchAD Ceuta FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.76

Xerez Deportivo

1.59

AD Ceuta FC

0.76

Xerez Deportivo creates 109% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 12 away

1.68

creates per match

1.08

0.43

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Xerez Deportivo

1.68

AD Ceuta FC

1.08

allows per match

Xerez Deportivo

0.43

AD Ceuta FC

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xerez Deportivo+0.00on par

AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xerez Deportivo ↓

AD Ceuta FC →

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Xerez Deportivo or draw

82%

Xerez Deportivo or AD Ceuta FC

75%

Draw or AD Ceuta FC

43%

Winning margin

Xerez Deportivo wins by 2+

31%

AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+

Team goals

Xerez Deportivo 1+ goals

80%

Xerez Deportivo 2+ goals

47%

Xerez Deportivo 3+ goals

21%

AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals

53%

AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals

18%

AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Xerez Deportivo (draw refunded)

76%

AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Xerez Deportivo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.43 · 44 matches

AD Ceuta FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Xerez Deportivo attack 1.68 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.08 + Xerez Deportivo defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Xerez Deportivo scores more

57%

level

25%

AD Ceuta FC scores more

18%

Xerez Deportivo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Xerez Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Xerez Deportivo vs AD Ceuta FC

Xerez Deportivo beat AD Ceuta FC 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Chapín in Jerez de la Frontera.

Xerez Deportivo vs AD Ceuta FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Xerez Deportivo vs AD Ceuta FC