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AD Ceuta FC vs Xerez Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Xerez Deportivo
Xerez Deportivo
11/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 4Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

AD Ceuta FC43%
×Draw28%
Xerez Deportivo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Ceuta FC
1.31
Xerez Deportivo
1.04

AD Ceuta FC creates 26% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 43 away

creates per match

AD Ceuta FC
1.58
Xerez Deportivo
1.33

allows per match

AD Ceuta FC
0.75
Xerez Deportivo
1.05

finishing

AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par
Xerez Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Ceuta FC ↓

Xerez Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

AD Ceuta FC or draw
70%
AD Ceuta FC or Xerez Deportivo
72%
Draw or Xerez Deportivo
57%

Winning margin

AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+
20%
Xerez Deportivo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals
73%
AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals
38%
AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals
14%
Xerez Deportivo 1+ goals
65%
Xerez Deportivo 2+ goals
28%
Xerez Deportivo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)
59%
Xerez Deportivo (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Ceuta FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Xerez Deportivo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.58 + Xerez Deportivo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.31

Xerez Deportivo attack 1.33 + AD Ceuta FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AD Ceuta FC scores more
43%
level
28%
Xerez Deportivo scores more
30%

AD Ceuta FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AD Ceuta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: AD Ceuta FC 0–0 Xerez Deportivo

AD Ceuta FC and Xerez Deportivo drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube in Ceuta.