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Xelajú vs Mixco — Liga Nacional 2019

Xelajú
Xelajú
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Mixco
Mixco
10/18/2025Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 15Estadio Mario Camposeco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Xelajú58%
×Draw25%
Mixco17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xelajú
1.59
Mixco
0.72

Xelajú creates 121% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 103 away

creates per match

Xelajú
1.54
Mixco
0.70

allows per match

Xelajú
0.74
Mixco
1.65

finishing

Xelajú+0.00on par
Mixco+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xelajú ↓

Mixco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Xelajú or draw
83%
Xelajú or Mixco
75%
Draw or Mixco
42%

Winning margin

Xelajú wins by 2+
31%
Mixco wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Xelajú 1+ goals
80%
Xelajú 2+ goals
47%
Xelajú 3+ goals
21%
Mixco 1+ goals
51%
Mixco 2+ goals
16%
Mixco 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Xelajú (draw refunded)
78%
Mixco (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xelajú at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.74 · 145 matches

Mixco away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.65 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xelajú attack 1.54 + Mixco defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.59

Mixco attack 0.70 + Xelajú defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Xelajú scores more
58%
level
25%
Mixco scores more
17%

Xelajú at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Xelajú will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Xelajú 1 – 2 Mixco

Mixco beat Xelajú 2-1 in Liga Nacional on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Mario Camposeco in Quetzaltenango.