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Mixco vs Xelajú — Liga Nacional 2019

Mixco
Mixco
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Xelajú
Xelajú
4/11/2026Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Mixco49%
×Draw29%
Xelajú22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mixco
1.31
Xelajú
0.77

Mixco creates 70% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 149 away

creates per match

Mixco
1.32
Xelajú
0.75

allows per match

Mixco
0.78
Xelajú
1.30

finishing

Mixco+0.00on par
Xelajú+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mixco ↓

Xelajú →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mixco or draw
78%
Mixco or Xelajú
71%
Draw or Xelajú
51%

Winning margin

Mixco wins by 2+
23%
Xelajú wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mixco 1+ goals
73%
Mixco 2+ goals
38%
Mixco 3+ goals
14%
Xelajú 1+ goals
54%
Xelajú 2+ goals
18%
Xelajú 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mixco (draw refunded)
69%
Xelajú (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mixco at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.78 · 105 matches

Xelajú away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.30 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mixco attack 1.32 + Xelajú defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Xelajú attack 0.75 + Mixco defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mixco scores more
49%
level
29%
Xelajú scores more
22%

Mixco at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mixco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mixco 3 – 1 Xelajú

Mixco beat Xelajú 3-1 in Liga Nacional on April 11, 2026.