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Wydad Fès vs Rapide Oued ZEM — Botola 2 2025

Wydad Fès
Wydad Fès
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rapide Oued ZEM
Rapide Oued ZEM
10/28/2023Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 8Stade d'Honneur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Wydad Fès42%
×Draw30%
Rapide Oued ZEM28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wydad Fès
1.17
Rapide Oued ZEM
0.88

Wydad Fès creates 33% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 45 away

creates per match

Wydad Fès
1.22
Rapide Oued ZEM
0.91

allows per match

Wydad Fès
0.84
Rapide Oued ZEM
1.13

finishing

Wydad Fès+0.00on par
Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad Fès ↓

Rapide Oued ZEM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Wydad Fès or draw
72%
Wydad Fès or Rapide Oued ZEM
70%
Draw or Rapide Oued ZEM
58%

Winning margin

Wydad Fès wins by 2+
18%
Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Wydad Fès 1+ goals
69%
Wydad Fès 2+ goals
33%
Wydad Fès 3+ goals
11%
Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals
59%
Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals
22%
Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Wydad Fès (draw refunded)
61%
Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad Fès at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.84 · 121 matches

Rapide Oued ZEM away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad Fès attack 1.22 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 0.91 + Wydad Fès defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wydad Fès scores more
42%
level
30%
Rapide Oued ZEM scores more
28%

Wydad Fès at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wydad Fès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wydad Fès vs Rapide Oued ZEM

Rapide Oued ZEM beat Wydad Fès 1-0 in Botola 2 on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stade d'Honneur in Meknès.