Rapide Oued ZEM 1–0 Wydad Fès: Result & Stats

Rapide Oued ZEM

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Wydad Fès

5/10/2025

Botola 2 · Round 28Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Rapide Oued ZEM44%

×Draw30%

Wydad Fès25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rapide Oued ZEMExpected goals in this matchWydad Fès

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.81

Rapide Oued ZEM

1.17

Wydad Fès

0.81

Rapide Oued ZEM creates 44% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 119 away

1.07

creates per match

0.80

0.82

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Rapide Oued ZEM

1.07

Wydad Fès

0.80

allows per match

Rapide Oued ZEM

0.82

Wydad Fès

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par

Wydad Fès+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapide Oued ZEM ↓

Wydad Fès →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Rapide Oued ZEM or draw

75%

Rapide Oued ZEM or Wydad Fès

70%

Draw or Wydad Fès

56%

Winning margin

Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+

19%

Wydad Fès wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals

69%

Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals

33%

Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals

11%

Wydad Fès 1+ goals

56%

Wydad Fès 2+ goals

19%

Wydad Fès 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)

63%

Wydad Fès (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapide Oued ZEM at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.82 · 44 matches

Wydad Fès away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.27 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 1.07 + Wydad Fès defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Wydad Fès attack 0.80 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rapide Oued ZEM scores more

44%

level

30%

Wydad Fès scores more

25%

Rapide Oued ZEM at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rapide Oued ZEM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff