Wydad Fès 2–0 Kasba Tadla: Result & Stats

Wydad Fès

FT

2 – 0

Kasba Tadla

9/29/2018

Botola 2 · Round 4Complexe Sportif de Fès (Fès)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wydad Fès49%

×Draw31%

Kasba Tadla20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wydad FèsExpected goals in this matchKasba Tadla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.62

Wydad Fès

1.17

Kasba Tadla

0.62

Wydad Fès creates 89% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 15 away

1.22

creates per match

0.40

0.84

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Wydad Fès

1.22

Kasba Tadla

0.40

allows per match

Wydad Fès

0.84

Kasba Tadla

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wydad Fès+0.00on par

Kasba Tadla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad Fès ↓

Kasba Tadla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Wydad Fès or draw

80%

Wydad Fès or Kasba Tadla

69%

Draw or Kasba Tadla

51%

Winning margin

Wydad Fès wins by 2+

22%

Kasba Tadla wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Wydad Fès 1+ goals

69%

Wydad Fès 2+ goals

33%

Wydad Fès 3+ goals

11%

Kasba Tadla 1+ goals

46%

Kasba Tadla 2+ goals

13%

Kasba Tadla 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Wydad Fès (draw refunded)

72%

Kasba Tadla (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad Fès at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.84 · 121 matches

Kasba Tadla away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad Fès attack 1.22 + Kasba Tadla defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Kasba Tadla attack 0.40 + Wydad Fès defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Wydad Fès scores more

49%

level

31%

Kasba Tadla scores more

20%

Wydad Fès at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Wydad Fès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff