Kasba Tadla 0–1 Wydad Fès: Result & Stats

Kasba Tadla

FT

0 – 1

Wydad Fès

2/9/2019

Botola 2 · Round 19Stade Municipal (Kasba Tadla)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kasba Tadla33%

×Draw28%

Wydad Fès38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kasba TadlaExpected goals in this matchWydad Fès

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.20

Kasba Tadla

1.10

Wydad Fès

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 119 away

0.93

creates per match

0.80

1.60

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Kasba Tadla

0.93

Wydad Fès

0.80

allows per match

Kasba Tadla

1.60

Wydad Fès

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kasba Tadla+0.00on par

Wydad Fès+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasba Tadla ↓

Wydad Fès →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Kasba Tadla or draw

62%

Kasba Tadla or Wydad Fès

72%

Draw or Wydad Fès

67%

Winning margin

Kasba Tadla wins by 2+

13%

Wydad Fès wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Kasba Tadla 1+ goals

67%

Kasba Tadla 2+ goals

30%

Kasba Tadla 3+ goals

10%

Wydad Fès 1+ goals

70%

Wydad Fès 2+ goals

34%

Wydad Fès 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kasba Tadla (draw refunded)

47%

Wydad Fès (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasba Tadla at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Wydad Fès away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.27 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasba Tadla attack 0.93 + Wydad Fès defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.10

Wydad Fès attack 0.80 + Kasba Tadla defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kasba Tadla scores more

33%

level

28%

Wydad Fès scores more

38%

Wydad Fès at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wydad Fès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff