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Wydad Fès vs Difaa EL Jadida — Botola 2 2025

Wydad Fès
Wydad Fès
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 4
Difaa EL Jadida
Difaa EL Jadida
5/20/2024Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 26Stade Hassan-II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wydad Fès37%
×Draw33%
Difaa EL Jadida30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wydad Fès
0.95
Difaa EL Jadida
0.82

Wydad Fès creates 16% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 15 away

creates per match

Wydad Fès
1.22
Difaa EL Jadida
0.80

allows per match

Wydad Fès
0.84
Difaa EL Jadida
0.67

finishing

Wydad Fès+0.00on par
Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad Fès ↓

Difaa EL Jadida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Wydad Fès or draw
70%
Wydad Fès or Difaa EL Jadida
67%
Draw or Difaa EL Jadida
63%

Winning margin

Wydad Fès wins by 2+
14%
Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Wydad Fès 1+ goals
61%
Wydad Fès 2+ goals
25%
Wydad Fès 3+ goals
7%
Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals
56%
Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals
20%
Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Wydad Fès (draw refunded)
55%
Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad Fès at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.84 · 121 matches

Difaa EL Jadida away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad Fès attack 1.22 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.95

Difaa EL Jadida attack 0.80 + Wydad Fès defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Wydad Fès scores more
37%
level
33%
Difaa EL Jadida scores more
30%

Wydad Fès at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Wydad Fès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wydad Fès vs Difaa EL Jadida

Difaa EL Jadida beat Wydad Fès 4-3 in Botola 2 on May 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Hassan-II in Fès.