Difaa EL Jadida 1–0 Wydad Fès: Result & Stats

Difaa EL Jadida

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Wydad Fès

11/19/2023

Botola 2 · Round 11Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Difaa EL Jadida51%

×Draw28%

Wydad Fès21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Difaa EL JadidaExpected goals in this matchWydad Fès

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.74

Difaa EL Jadida

1.33

Wydad Fès

0.74

Difaa EL Jadida creates 80% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 119 away

1.40

creates per match

0.80

0.67

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Difaa EL Jadida

1.40

Wydad Fès

0.80

allows per match

Difaa EL Jadida

0.67

Wydad Fès

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par

Wydad Fès+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Difaa EL Jadida ↓

Wydad Fès →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Difaa EL Jadida or draw

79%

Difaa EL Jadida or Wydad Fès

72%

Draw or Wydad Fès

49%

Winning margin

Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+

24%

Wydad Fès wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals

74%

Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals

38%

Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals

15%

Wydad Fès 1+ goals

52%

Wydad Fès 2+ goals

17%

Wydad Fès 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)

71%

Wydad Fès (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Difaa EL Jadida at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Wydad Fès away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.27 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.40 + Wydad Fès defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.33

Wydad Fès attack 0.80 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Difaa EL Jadida scores more

51%

level

28%

Wydad Fès scores more

21%

Difaa EL Jadida at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Difaa EL Jadida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff