Wydad AC 3–2 Youssoufia Berrechid: Result & Stats

Wydad AC

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Youssoufia Berrechid

9/29/2021

Botola Pro · Round 4Stade Larbi Zaouli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Wydad AC57%

×Draw23%

Youssoufia Berrechid19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wydad ACExpected goals in this matchYoussoufia Berrechid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.90

Wydad AC

1.75

Youssoufia Berrechid

0.90

Wydad AC creates 94% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 75 away

1.79

creates per match

0.95

0.84

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Wydad AC

1.79

Youssoufia Berrechid

0.95

allows per match

Wydad AC

0.84

Youssoufia Berrechid

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par

Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

Youssoufia Berrechid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw

81%

Wydad AC or Youssoufia Berrechid

77%

Draw or Youssoufia Berrechid

43%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+

32%

Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals

83%

Wydad AC 2+ goals

52%

Wydad AC 3+ goals

25%

Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals

59%

Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals

23%

Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)

75%

Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.84 · 120 matches

Youssoufia Berrechid away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.72 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 1.79 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.75

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 0.95 + Wydad AC defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Wydad AC scores more

57%

level

23%

Youssoufia Berrechid scores more

19%

Wydad AC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff