Wydad AC 1–0 Vita Club: Result & Stats

Wydad AC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vita Club

G. Magema 55' (OG)

3/3/2023

CAF Champions League · Group A - 1Stade Mohamed V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Wydad AC64%

×Draw23%

Vita Club12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wydad ACExpected goals in this matchVita Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.57

Wydad AC

1.68

Vita Club

0.57

Wydad AC creates 195% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

2.14

creates per match

0.71

0.43

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Wydad AC

2.14

Vita Club

0.71

allows per match

Wydad AC

0.43

Vita Club

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par

Vita Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

Vita Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw

88%

Wydad AC or Vita Club

77%

Draw or Vita Club

36%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+

37%

Vita Club wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals

81%

Wydad AC 2+ goals

50%

Wydad AC 3+ goals

24%

Vita Club 1+ goals

43%

Vita Club 2+ goals

11%

Vita Club 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)

84%

Vita Club (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.43 · 28 matches

Vita Club away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 2.14 + Vita Club defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.68

Vita Club attack 0.71 + Wydad AC defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Wydad AC scores more

64%

level

23%

Vita Club scores more

12%

Wydad AC at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Y. Attiat-Allah

Wydad AC · D

8.2

Match Events

17'

Mpoyi Ntumba

33'

Mbomba Motu

46'

P. Mutumosi← L. Mabidi

46'

H. Imana← K. Mujinga

54'

A. Haimoud← J. Daoudi

54'

M. Ounajem← H. Boussefiane

55'

G. MagemaOwn goal

65'

Marouf Tchakei

78'

Muaid Ellafi← S. Bouhra

84'

S. Christopher← H. Imana

84'

M. Kikasa← J. Kalenda

84'

E. Taddy← É. Kabwe

90'

A. Aboulfath← Y. Attiat-Allah

90'

I. Moutaraji← A. El Hassouni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WydadVita

Overview

72%Possession28%

25Total Shots5

8Corners5

14Fouls18

Shots

25Total Shots5

3On Target0

15Off Target2

7Blocked3

18Inside Box2

7Outside Box3

Passing

72%Possession28%

593Total Passes236

518Accurate Passes168

87%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls18

0Yellow Cards3