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Vita Club vs Wydad AC — CAF Champions League 2019

Vita Club
Vita Club
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wydad AC
Wydad AC
3/18/2023CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group A - 5Stade Alphonse Massamba-Débat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vita Club42%
×Draw30%
Wydad AC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vita Club
1.17
Wydad AC
0.92

Vita Club creates 27% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 29 away

creates per match

Vita Club
1.36
Wydad AC
0.83

allows per match

Vita Club
1.00
Wydad AC
0.97

finishing

Vita Club+0.00on par
Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vita Club ↓

Wydad AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Vita Club or draw
71%
Vita Club or Wydad AC
70%
Draw or Wydad AC
58%

Winning margin

Vita Club wins by 2+
18%
Wydad AC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vita Club 1+ goals
69%
Vita Club 2+ goals
33%
Vita Club 3+ goals
11%
Wydad AC 1+ goals
60%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
23%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vita Club (draw refunded)
59%
Wydad AC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vita Club at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vita Club attack 1.36 + Wydad AC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.17

Wydad AC attack 0.83 + Vita Club defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vita Club scores more
42%
level
30%
Wydad AC scores more
29%

Vita Club at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vita Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
A. TagnaoutiWydad ACWydad AC · G
7.9

Match Events

41'
Jacques Thémopolé
45+2'
Bouly Junior Sambou
71'
N. Manianga← K. Mujinga
71'
É. Kabwe← E. Taddy
75'
A. Aboulfath← A. Farhane
80'
M. Ounajem← H. Boussefiane
90'
H. Ait Allal← S. Bouhra

Possession

60%Vita

Shots

13Vita

Pass accuracy

54%Vita

Statistics

VitaWydad
Overview
60%Possession40%
13Total Shots7
8Corners4
11Fouls16
Shots
13Total Shots7
4On Target2
6Off Target3
3Blocked2
4Inside Box6
9Outside Box1
Passing
60%Possession40%
402Total Passes271
345Accurate Passes197
86%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls16
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides4

CAF Champions League: Vita Club 0–0 Wydad AC

Vita Club and Wydad AC drew 0-0 in CAF Champions League on March 18, 2023.

Vita Club controlled possession (60%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stade Alphonse Massamba-Débat in Brazzaville.