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Wydad AC vs USM Alger — CAF Champions League 2019

Wydad AC
Wydad AC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
USM Alger
USM Alger
Kasengu Kazadi 45'
Badie Aouk 24'
Walid El Karti 7'
Mohamed Rabie Meftah 79'
1/24/2020CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group Stage - 5Stade Mohamed V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Wydad AC58%
×Draw23%
USM Alger19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wydad AC
1.77
USM Alger
0.91

Wydad AC creates 95% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 5 away

creates per match

Wydad AC
2.14
USM Alger
1.40

allows per match

Wydad AC
0.43
USM Alger
1.40

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par
USM Alger+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

USM Alger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw
81%
Wydad AC or USM Alger
77%
Draw or USM Alger
42%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+
33%
USM Alger wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals
83%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
53%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
26%
USM Alger 1+ goals
60%
USM Alger 2+ goals
23%
USM Alger 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)
75%
USM Alger (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.43 · 28 matches

USM Alger away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 2.14 + USM Alger defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.77

USM Alger attack 1.40 + Wydad AC defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Wydad AC scores more
58%
level
23%
USM Alger scores more
19%

Wydad AC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
Badie AoukWydad ACWydad AC · M
8.6

Match Events

7'
Walid El Karti↳ Kasengu Kazadi
24'
Badie Aouk↳ Hamza Asrir
44'
Abderrahime Hamra
45'
Kasengu Kazadi↳ Badie Aouk
57'
Billel Benhamouda← Taher Benkhelifa
58'
Walid Ardji← Muaid Ellafi
72'
Aymane El Hassouni← Walid El Karti
75'
Ahmed Reda Tagnaouti
79'
Mohamed Rabie Meftah↳ Abdelkarim Zouari
85'
Oussama Chita← Mustapha Kheiraoui
87'
Adil Rhaili← Hamza Asrir
90'
Junior Gbagbo Magbi← Kasengu Kazadi

Possession

49%Wydad

Shots

17Wydad

Pass accuracy

50%Wydad

Statistics

WydadUSM
Overview
49%Possession51%
17Total Shots14
4Corners5
28Fouls17
Shots
17Total Shots14
7On Target3
8Off Target7
2Blocked4
10Inside Box10
7Outside Box4
Passing
49%Possession51%
362Total Passes359
271Accurate Passes265
75%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
28Fouls17
1Yellow Cards1
8Offsides0

CAF Champions League: Wydad AC 3–1 USM Alger

Wydad AC beat USM Alger 3-1 in CAF Champions League on January 24, 2020.

Goals: Walid El Karti (7'), Badie Aouk (24'), Kasengu Kazadi (45'), Mohamed Rabie Meftah (79').

USM Alger controlled possession (51%) and registered 14 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stade Mohamed V in Casablanca.