USM Alger 1–1 Wydad AC: Result & Stats

USM Alger

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Wydad AC

A. Zouari 5'

B. Aouk 89'

11/30/2019

CAF Champions League · Group Stage - 1Stade Mustapha Tchaker

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

USM Alger48%

×Draw26%

Wydad AC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

USM AlgerExpected goals in this matchWydad AC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.01

USM Alger

1.48

Wydad AC

1.01

USM Alger creates 47% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 29 away

2.00

creates per match

0.83

1.20

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

USM Alger

2.00

Wydad AC

0.83

allows per match

USM Alger

1.20

Wydad AC

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

USM Alger+0.00on par

Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USM Alger ↓

Wydad AC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

USM Alger or draw

74%

USM Alger or Wydad AC

74%

Draw or Wydad AC

52%

Winning margin

USM Alger wins by 2+

24%

Wydad AC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

USM Alger 1+ goals

77%

USM Alger 2+ goals

43%

USM Alger 3+ goals

19%

Wydad AC 1+ goals

64%

Wydad AC 2+ goals

27%

Wydad AC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

USM Alger (draw refunded)

65%

Wydad AC (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USM Alger at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USM Alger attack 2.00 + Wydad AC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.48

Wydad AC attack 0.83 + USM Alger defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

USM Alger scores more

48%

level

26%

Wydad AC scores more

26%

USM Alger at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "USM Alger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

A. Zouari

41'

B. Benhammouda← T. Ben Khelifa

53'

W. El Karti← B. Nakach

61'

S. A. Muaid Ellafi

62'

M. Babatunde← A. Thigazaoui

72'

A. Khemaissia← Z. Haddouche

78'

Y. Jabrane

78'

G. Okechukwu← A. Hassouni

80'

A. El Amloud

81'

A. Mahious← Z. Benchaâ

89'

B. Aouk↳ M. Babatunde

USM

Wydad

26

Tagnaouti

29

Comara

22

Amloud

19

▼

Thigazaou

20

▼

Hassouni

6

▼

8

3

5

17

⚽

9

1

22

19

3

4

23

10

17

▼

Khelifa

11

⚽

Zouari

7

▼

Haddouche

9

▼

Benchaâ

Manager: B. Dziri

41'▲B. Benhammouda←▼T. Ben Khelifa

72'▲A. Khemaissia←▼Z. Haddouche

81'▲A. Mahious←▼Z. Benchaâ

USM Alger substitutes

26Benhammouda29Khemaissia18Mahious16Mansouri8Belarbi27Tiboutine28Belkaroui

Manager: Z. Manojlovic

53'▲W. El Karti←▼B. Nakach

62'▲M. Babatunde←▼A. Thigazaoui

78'▲G. Okechukwu←▼A. Hassouni

Wydad AC substitutes

18Karti10Babatunde25Okechukwu28Noussir13Najmeddine12Mourid16Asrir