Wydad AC 3–0 Stade Malien Bamako: Result & Stats

Wydad AC

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Stade Malien Bamako

Muaid Ellafi 64', 46'

A. El Kaabi 43'

1/6/2021

CAF Champions League · 1st RoundStade Mohamed V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Wydad AC60%

×Draw25%

Stade Malien Bamako15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wydad ACExpected goals in this matchStade Malien Bamako

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.67

Wydad AC

1.62

Stade Malien Bamako

0.67

Wydad AC creates 142% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 11 away

2.14

creates per match

0.91

0.43

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Wydad AC

2.14

Stade Malien Bamako

0.91

allows per match

Wydad AC

0.43

Stade Malien Bamako

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par

Stade Malien Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

Stade Malien Bamako →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw

85%

Wydad AC or Stade Malien Bamako

75%

Draw or Stade Malien Bamako

40%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+

33%

Stade Malien Bamako wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals

80%

Wydad AC 2+ goals

48%

Wydad AC 3+ goals

22%

Stade Malien Bamako 1+ goals

49%

Stade Malien Bamako 2+ goals

15%

Stade Malien Bamako 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)

80%

Stade Malien Bamako (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.43 · 28 matches

Stade Malien Bamako away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 2.14 + Stade Malien Bamako defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.62

Stade Malien Bamako attack 0.91 + Wydad AC defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Wydad AC scores more

60%

level

25%

Stade Malien Bamako scores more

15%

Wydad AC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

S. Kanoute← A. Sissoko

43'

46'

55'

55'

64'

77'

M. Babatunde← Muaid Ellafi

86'

Z. El-Moutaraji← S. Msuva

90'

M. Rahim← A. El Amloud

Wydad

Stade

1

14

15

5

24

21

▼

Fofana

12

▼

13

9

10

11

▼

Diallo

26

Tagnaouti

22

▼

30

4

18

28

⚽2

▼

Ellafi

3

Dari

5

Jabrane

11

▼

Msuva

9

⚽

Kaabi

14

allah

Manager: F. Benzarti

77'▲M. Babatunde←▼Muaid Ellafi

86'▲Z. El-Moutaraji←▼S. Msuva

90'▲M. Rahim←▼A. El Amloud

Wydad AC substitutes

10Babatunde7El-Moutaraji24Rahim6Serrhat8Gaddarine27Sioudi21Karkache

20'▲S. Kanoute←▼A. Sissoko

55'▲M. Traoré←▼D. Diallo

55'▲S. Traore←▼B. Fofana

Stade Malien Bamako substitutes

8Kanoute7Traoré20Traore4Sidibé16Tembely17Samake18Konate

Match Recap: Wydad AC vs Stade Malien Bamako

Wydad AC beat Stade Malien Bamako 3-0 in CAF Champions League on January 6, 2021.

Goals: A. El Kaabi (43'), Muaid Ellafi (46', 64').

The match was played at Stade Mohamed V in Casablanca.

Wydad AC vs Stade Malien Bamako — CAF Champions League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Wydad AC vs Stade Malien Bamako