Stade Malien Bamako 1–0 Wydad AC: Result & Stats

Stade Malien Bamako

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wydad AC

Mamadou Coulibaly 58'

12/23/2020

CAF Champions League · 1st RoundStade 26 Mars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Stade Malien Bamako54%

×Draw29%

Wydad AC17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade Malien BamakoExpected goals in this matchWydad AC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.57

Stade Malien Bamako

1.28

Wydad AC

0.57

Stade Malien Bamako creates 125% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 30 away

1.64

creates per match

0.87

0.27

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Stade Malien Bamako

1.64

Wydad AC

0.87

allows per match

Stade Malien Bamako

0.27

Wydad AC

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Malien Bamako+0.00on par

Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Malien Bamako ↓

Wydad AC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–19%

0–23%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Stade Malien Bamako or draw

83%

Stade Malien Bamako or Wydad AC

71%

Draw or Wydad AC

46%

Winning margin

Stade Malien Bamako wins by 2+

26%

Wydad AC wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Stade Malien Bamako 1+ goals

72%

Stade Malien Bamako 2+ goals

37%

Stade Malien Bamako 3+ goals

14%

Wydad AC 1+ goals

43%

Wydad AC 2+ goals

11%

Wydad AC 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Stade Malien Bamako (draw refunded)

77%

Wydad AC (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Malien Bamako at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.27 · 11 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 0.87, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Malien Bamako attack 1.64 + Wydad AC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.28

Wydad AC attack 0.87 + Stade Malien Bamako defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Stade Malien Bamako scores more

54%

level

29%

Wydad AC scores more

17%

Stade Malien Bamako at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Stade Malien Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'

A. Serrhat← A. El Amloud

58'

Mamadou Coulibaly

72'

A. Kizito← M. Traoré

72'

K. Okechekwu← S. Kanoute

74'

M. Babatunde← B. Aouk

74'

Muaid Ellafi← W. El Karti

83'

S. Traore← Mamadou Coulibaly

Stade

Wydad

26

Tagnaouti

22

▼

Amloud

30

Aboulfath

4

Saidi

18

▼

Karti

8

Gaddarine

3

Dari

17

▼

11

9

14

1

14

15

5

4

8

▼

24

12

13

10

⚽

▼

Coulibaly

7

▼

Traoré

72'▲A. Kizito←▼M. Traoré

72'▲K. Okechekwu←▼S. Kanoute

83'▲S. Traore←▼Mamadou Coulibaly

Stade Malien Bamako substitutes

26Kizito27Okechekwu20Traore16Tembely18Konate21Fofana23Boire

Manager: F. Benzarti

51'▲A. Serrhat←▼A. El Amloud

74'▲M. Babatunde←▼B. Aouk

74'▲Muaid Ellafi←▼W. El Karti

Wydad AC substitutes

6Serrhat10Babatunde28Ellafi31Allal16Asrir27Sioudi24Rahim