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Wydad AC vs Sagrada Esperança — CAF Champions League 2019

Wydad AC
Wydad AC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
G. Kamboleke 72'
Y. Jabrane 52' (pen)
A. Dari 45+2'
2/11/2022CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group D - 1Stade Mohamed V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Wydad AC76%
×Draw18%
Sagrada Esperança6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wydad AC
2.02
Sagrada Esperança
0.38

Wydad AC creates 432% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 9 away

creates per match

Wydad AC
2.14
Sagrada Esperança
0.33

allows per match

Wydad AC
0.43
Sagrada Esperança
1.89

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par
Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

Sagrada Esperança →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–17%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–019%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (19%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw
94%
Wydad AC or Sagrada Esperança
82%
Draw or Sagrada Esperança
24%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+
50%
Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals
87%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
60%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
33%
Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
32%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
6%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)
93%
Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.43 · 28 matches

Sagrada Esperança away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 2.14 + Sagrada Esperança defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.02

Sagrada Esperança attack 0.33 + Wydad AC defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Wydad AC scores more
76%
level
18%
Sagrada Esperança scores more
6%

Wydad AC at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
A. DariWydad ACWydad AC · D
7.9

Match Events

41'
Jó Paciência
45+2'
A. Dari↳ J. Daoudi
46'
B. Dlamini← Jó Paciência
49'
Victoriano
50'
Carlinhos
52'
Y. JabranePenalty
65'
S. Benyachou← Muaid Ellafi
65'
Celso← J. Olatubosum
72'
G. Kamboleke↳ A. Hassouni
76'
B. Aouk← G. Kamboleke
76'
J. Tsoumou← A. Haimoud
77'
Cachi← Lépua
77'
Água Doce← Carlinhos
82'
A. Serrhat← A. Hassouni
82'
M. Chrachem← R. Jaadi
87'
Juvhel Tsoumou
90+1'
Yahya Jabrane

Possession

63%Wydad

Shots

22Wydad

Pass accuracy

54%Wydad

Statistics

WydadSagrada
Overview
63%Possession37%
22Total Shots6
12Corners1
20Fouls17
Shots
22Total Shots6
9On Target1
10Off Target3
3Blocked2
11Inside Box1
11Outside Box5
Passing
63%Possession37%
551Total Passes333
453Accurate Passes230
82%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
20Fouls17
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

CAF Champions League: Wydad AC 3–0 Sagrada Esperança

Wydad AC beat Sagrada Esperança 3-0 in CAF Champions League on February 11, 2022.

Goals: A. Dari (45+2'), Y. Jabrane (52' pen), G. Kamboleke (72').

Wydad AC controlled possession (63%) and registered 22 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stade Mohamed V in Casablanca.