Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sagrada Esperança vs Wydad AC — CAF Champions League 2019

Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Wydad AC
Wydad AC
Jó Paciência 30'
J. Tsoumou 90+5'
Z. El-Moutaraji 82'
3/19/2022CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group D - 5Estádio 11 de Novembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sagrada Esperança43%
×Draw33%
Wydad AC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagrada Esperança
1.04
Wydad AC
0.71

Sagrada Esperança creates 46% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 29 away

creates per match

Sagrada Esperança
1.10
Wydad AC
0.83

allows per match

Sagrada Esperança
0.60
Wydad AC
0.97

finishing

Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par
Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagrada Esperança ↓

Wydad AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Sagrada Esperança or draw
75%
Sagrada Esperança or Wydad AC
67%
Draw or Wydad AC
57%

Winning margin

Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
17%
Wydad AC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
65%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
28%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
9%
Wydad AC 1+ goals
51%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
16%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
63%
Wydad AC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagrada Esperança at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagrada Esperança attack 1.10 + Wydad AC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Wydad AC attack 0.83 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sagrada Esperança scores more
43%
level
33%
Wydad AC scores more
25%

Sagrada Esperança at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sagrada Esperança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
G. MbenzaWydad ACWydad AC · F
7.7

Match Events

30'
Jó Paciência↳ B. Dlamini
31'
Jó Paciência
55'
Mateus← B. Dlamini
61'
G. Mbenza← A. Haimoud
61'
M. Chrachem← S. Benyachou
67'
Aníbal← Carlinhos
71'
J. Tsoumou← Muaid Ellafi
79'
Gerson
82'
Z. El-Moutaraji↳ G. Mbenza
83'
Adó Pena← Jó Paciência
83'
Cachi← Celso
90+2'
M. Elouardi← J. Daoudi
90+2'
A. Serrhat← Z. El-Moutaraji
90+5'
J. Tsoumou↳ Y. Attiyat Allah

Possession

46%Sagrada

Shots

5Sagrada

Pass accuracy

49%Sagrada

Statistics

SagradaWydad
Overview
46%Possession54%
5Total Shots19
0Corners4
16Fouls12
Shots
5Total Shots19
1On Target7
3Off Target8
1Blocked4
4Inside Box14
1Outside Box5
Passing
46%Possession54%
425Total Passes486
327Accurate Passes382
77%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
5Saves0
Discipline
16Fouls12
2Yellow Cards0
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Sagrada Esperança vs Wydad AC

Wydad AC beat Sagrada Esperança 2-1 in CAF Champions League on March 19, 2022.

Goals: Jó Paciência (30'), Z. El-Moutaraji (82'), J. Tsoumou (90+5').

Wydad AC controlled possession (54%) and registered 19 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estádio 11 de Novembro in Luanda.