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Wydad AC vs Riadi Salmi — Cup 2020

Wydad AC
Wydad AC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Riadi Salmi
Riadi Salmiadvanced
3/31/2024CupCup · Round of 32Stade El Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wydad AC45%
×Draw26%
Riadi Salmi30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wydad AC
1.50
Riadi Salmi
1.17

Wydad AC creates 28% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Wydad AC
1.67
Riadi Salmi
1.67

allows per match

Wydad AC
0.67
Riadi Salmi
1.33

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par
Riadi Salmi+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

Riadi Salmi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw
70%
Wydad AC or Riadi Salmi
74%
Draw or Riadi Salmi
55%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+
22%
Riadi Salmi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals
78%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
44%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
19%
Riadi Salmi 1+ goals
69%
Riadi Salmi 2+ goals
33%
Riadi Salmi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)
60%
Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Riadi Salmi away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 1.67 + Riadi Salmi defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Riadi Salmi attack 1.67 + Wydad AC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wydad AC scores more
45%
level
26%
Riadi Salmi scores more
30%

Wydad AC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wydad AC vs Riadi Salmi

Riadi Salmi beat Wydad AC 1-0 in Cup on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Stade El Bachir in Mohammédia.