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Riadi Salmi vs Wydad AC — Botola Pro 2025

Riadi Salmi
Riadi Salmi
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Wydad AC
Wydad AC
5/8/2025Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 29Stade Municipal de Berrechid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Riadi Salmi28%
×Draw28%
Wydad AC44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Riadi Salmi
0.99
Wydad AC
1.33

Wydad AC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 120 away

creates per match

Riadi Salmi
1.03
Wydad AC
1.32

allows per match

Riadi Salmi
1.34
Wydad AC
0.96

finishing

Riadi Salmi+0.00on par
Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riadi Salmi ↓

Wydad AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Riadi Salmi or draw
56%
Riadi Salmi or Wydad AC
72%
Draw or Wydad AC
72%

Winning margin

Riadi Salmi wins by 2+
10%
Wydad AC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Riadi Salmi 1+ goals
63%
Riadi Salmi 2+ goals
26%
Riadi Salmi 3+ goals
8%
Wydad AC 1+ goals
74%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
38%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)
39%
Wydad AC (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riadi Salmi at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.96 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riadi Salmi attack 1.03 + Wydad AC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.99

Wydad AC attack 1.32 + Riadi Salmi defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Riadi Salmi scores more
28%
level
28%
Wydad AC scores more
44%

Wydad AC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Riadi Salmi 0–2 Wydad AC

Wydad AC beat Riadi Salmi 2-0 in Botola Pro on May 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berrechid in Berrechid.