Wydad AC 4–1 Nouadhibou: Result & Stats

Wydad AC

FT

4 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Nouadhibou

9/29/2019

CAF Champions League · 1st RoundStade Mohamed V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Wydad AC69%

×Draw21%

Nouadhibou10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wydad ACExpected goals in this matchNouadhibou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.50

Wydad AC

1.79

Nouadhibou

0.50

Wydad AC creates 258% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

2.14

creates per match

0.57

0.43

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Wydad AC

2.14

Nouadhibou

0.57

allows per match

Wydad AC

0.43

Nouadhibou

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par

Nouadhibou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

Nouadhibou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw

90%

Wydad AC or Nouadhibou

79%

Draw or Nouadhibou

31%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+

41%

Nouadhibou wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals

83%

Wydad AC 2+ goals

53%

Wydad AC 3+ goals

26%

Nouadhibou 1+ goals

39%

Nouadhibou 2+ goals

9%

Nouadhibou 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)

88%

Nouadhibou (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.43 · 28 matches

Nouadhibou away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 2.14 + Nouadhibou defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.79

Nouadhibou attack 0.57 + Wydad AC defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Wydad AC scores more

69%

level

21%

Nouadhibou scores more

10%

Wydad AC at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff