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Nouadhibou vs Wydad AC — CAF Champions League 2019

Nouadhibou
Nouadhibou
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Wydad AC
Wydad AC
I. El Haddad 73'
M. Nahiri 34'
9/15/2019CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st RoundStade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Nouadhibou40%
×Draw32%
Wydad AC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nouadhibou
1.03
Wydad AC
0.79

Nouadhibou creates 30% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 30 away

creates per match

Nouadhibou
1.14
Wydad AC
0.87

allows per match

Nouadhibou
0.71
Wydad AC
0.93

finishing

Nouadhibou+0.00on par
Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nouadhibou ↓

Wydad AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Nouadhibou or draw
73%
Nouadhibou or Wydad AC
68%
Draw or Wydad AC
60%

Winning margin

Nouadhibou wins by 2+
16%
Wydad AC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nouadhibou 1+ goals
64%
Nouadhibou 2+ goals
28%
Nouadhibou 3+ goals
9%
Wydad AC 1+ goals
55%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
19%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Nouadhibou (draw refunded)
60%
Wydad AC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nouadhibou at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 0.87, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nouadhibou attack 1.14 + Wydad AC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Wydad AC attack 0.87 + Nouadhibou defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nouadhibou scores more
40%
level
32%
Wydad AC scores more
27%

Nouadhibou at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nouadhibou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
M. Nahiri
73'
I. El Haddad

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: Nouadhibou 0–2 Wydad AC

Wydad AC beat Nouadhibou 2-0 in CAF Champions League on September 15, 2019.

Goals: M. Nahiri (34'), I. El Haddad (73').

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.