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Wydad AC vs Mouloudia Oujda — Botola Pro 2025

Wydad AC
Wydad AC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mouloudia Oujda
Mouloudia Oujda
4/8/2023Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 22Stade Mohamed V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Wydad AC52%
×Draw26%
Mouloudia Oujda22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wydad AC
1.54
Mouloudia Oujda
0.89

Wydad AC creates 73% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 90 away

creates per match

Wydad AC
1.79
Mouloudia Oujda
0.93

allows per match

Wydad AC
0.84
Mouloudia Oujda
1.28

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par
Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

Mouloudia Oujda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw
78%
Wydad AC or Mouloudia Oujda
74%
Draw or Mouloudia Oujda
48%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+
27%
Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals
79%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
45%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
20%
Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals
59%
Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals
22%
Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)
71%
Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.84 · 120 matches

Mouloudia Oujda away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.28 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 1.79 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.54

Mouloudia Oujda attack 0.93 + Wydad AC defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Wydad AC scores more
52%
level
26%
Mouloudia Oujda scores more
22%

Wydad AC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wydad AC vs Mouloudia Oujda

Wydad AC beat Mouloudia Oujda 1-0 in Botola Pro on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Mohamed V in Casablanca.