Mouloudia Oujda 0–2 Wydad AC: Result & Stats

Mouloudia Oujda

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Wydad AC

3/21/2024

Botola Pro · Round 22Stade d'Honneur d'Oujda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Mouloudia Oujda31%

×Draw28%

Wydad AC41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mouloudia OujdaExpected goals in this matchWydad AC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.25

Mouloudia Oujda

1.06

Wydad AC

1.25

Wydad AC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 120 away

1.17

creates per match

1.32

1.17

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Mouloudia Oujda

1.17

Wydad AC

1.32

allows per match

Mouloudia Oujda

1.17

Wydad AC

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par

Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mouloudia Oujda ↓

Wydad AC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mouloudia Oujda or draw

59%

Mouloudia Oujda or Wydad AC

72%

Draw or Wydad AC

69%

Winning margin

Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+

12%

Wydad AC wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals

65%

Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals

29%

Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals

9%

Wydad AC 1+ goals

71%

Wydad AC 2+ goals

36%

Wydad AC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)

44%

Wydad AC (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mouloudia Oujda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 90 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.96 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mouloudia Oujda attack 1.17 + Wydad AC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.06

Wydad AC attack 1.32 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mouloudia Oujda scores more

31%

level

28%

Wydad AC scores more

41%

Wydad AC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff