Wydad AC 1–0 Moghreb Tetouan: Result & Stats

Wydad AC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Moghreb Tetouan

9/14/2024

Botola Pro · Round 2Stade Larbi Zaouli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Wydad AC54%

×Draw25%

Moghreb Tetouan21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wydad ACExpected goals in this matchMoghreb Tetouan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.86

Wydad AC

1.57

Moghreb Tetouan

0.86

Wydad AC creates 83% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 91 away

1.79

creates per match

0.89

0.84

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Wydad AC

1.79

Moghreb Tetouan

0.89

allows per match

Wydad AC

0.84

Moghreb Tetouan

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par

Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

Moghreb Tetouan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw

79%

Wydad AC or Moghreb Tetouan

75%

Draw or Moghreb Tetouan

46%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+

28%

Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals

79%

Wydad AC 2+ goals

46%

Wydad AC 3+ goals

21%

Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals

58%

Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals

21%

Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)

72%

Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.84 · 120 matches

Moghreb Tetouan away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 1.79 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.57

Moghreb Tetouan attack 0.89 + Wydad AC defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Wydad AC scores more

54%

level

25%

Moghreb Tetouan scores more

21%

Wydad AC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff