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Moghreb Tetouan vs Wydad AC — Cup 2020

Moghreb Tetouan
Moghreb Tetouan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wydad AC
Wydad AC
4/5/2025CupCup · 8th FinalsStade Saniat Rmel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Moghreb Tetouan16%
×Draw25%
Wydad AC59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moghreb Tetouan
0.67
Wydad AC
1.58

Wydad AC creates 136% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Moghreb Tetouan
0.67
Wydad AC
2.17

allows per match

Moghreb Tetouan
1.00
Wydad AC
0.67

finishing

Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par
Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moghreb Tetouan ↓

Wydad AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–117%
0–213%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Moghreb Tetouan or draw
41%
Moghreb Tetouan or Wydad AC
75%
Draw or Wydad AC
84%

Winning margin

Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+
4%
Wydad AC wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals
49%
Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals
15%
Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals
3%
Wydad AC 1+ goals
79%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
47%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)
21%
Wydad AC (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moghreb Tetouan at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moghreb Tetouan attack 0.67 + Wydad AC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Wydad AC attack 2.17 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Moghreb Tetouan scores more
16%
level
25%
Wydad AC scores more
59%

Wydad AC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moghreb Tetouan vs Wydad AC

Moghreb Tetouan beat Wydad AC 1-0 in Cup on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Saniat Rmel in Tétouan.