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Wydad AC vs Moghreb Tetouan — Cup 2020

Wydad AC
Wydad AC
AET
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Moghreb Tetouan
Moghreb Tetouan
Unknown 120+3' (pen), 120+2' (pen), 120+1' (pen)
S. Msuva 74'
A. El Kaabi 42'
Unknown 120+5' (pen), 120+4' (pen), 120+3' (pen), 120+2' (pen), 120+1' (pen)
A. Jabroun 71'
H. El Khaloua 46'
8/1/2021CupCup · Semi-finalsStade de Marrakech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wydad AC23%
×Draw24%
Moghreb Tetouan53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wydad AC
1.00
Moghreb Tetouan
1.67

Moghreb Tetouan creates 67% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Wydad AC
1.67
Moghreb Tetouan
2.67

allows per match

Wydad AC
0.67
Moghreb Tetouan
0.33

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par
Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

Moghreb Tetouan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw
47%
Wydad AC or Moghreb Tetouan
76%
Draw or Moghreb Tetouan
77%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+
8%
Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals
63%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
26%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
8%
Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals
81%
Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals
50%
Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)
30%
Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Moghreb Tetouan away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 1.67 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Moghreb Tetouan attack 2.67 + Wydad AC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Wydad AC scores more
23%
level
24%
Moghreb Tetouan scores more
53%

Moghreb Tetouan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Moghreb Tetouan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
A. El Kaabi
46'
H. El Khaloua
71'
A. Jabroun
74'
S. Msuva
116'
M. Kamal
120+1'
Penalty
120+1'
Penalty
120+2'
Penalty
120+2'
Penalty
120+3'
Penalty
120+3'
Penalty
120+4'
Penalty
120+4'
Missed penalty
120+5'
Penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Wydad AC 2–2 Moghreb Tetouan

Wydad AC and Moghreb Tetouan drew 2-2 in Cup on August 1, 2021.

Goals: A. El Kaabi (42'), H. El Khaloua (46'), A. Jabroun (71'), S. Msuva (74'), ? (120+1' pen, 120+1' pen, 120+2' pen, 120+2' pen, 120+3' pen, 120+3' pen, 120+4' pen, 120+5' pen).

The match was played at Stade de Marrakech in Marrakech.