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Wydad AC vs Mamelodi Sundowns — CAF Champions League 2019

Wydad AC
Wydad AC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
5/13/2023CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Semi-finalsStade Mohamed V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Wydad AC48%
×Draw26%
Mamelodi Sundowns26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wydad AC
1.49
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.03

Wydad AC creates 45% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 41 away

creates per match

Wydad AC
2.14
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.63

allows per match

Wydad AC
0.43
Mamelodi Sundowns
0.83

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par
Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

Mamelodi Sundowns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw
74%
Wydad AC or Mamelodi Sundowns
74%
Draw or Mamelodi Sundowns
52%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+
24%
Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals
77%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
44%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
19%
Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
64%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
28%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)
65%
Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.43 · 28 matches

Mamelodi Sundowns away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.83 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 2.14 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.49

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.63 + Wydad AC defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wydad AC scores more
48%
level
26%
Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
26%

Wydad AC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
Y. Attiat-AllahWydad ACWydad AC · D
7.7

Match Events

11'
Peter ShalulileGoal cancelled
28'
Aubrey Maphosa Modiba
32'
Yahya Jabrane
42'
Neo MaemaCard upgrade
43'
Neo Maema
45+2'
Yahia Attiyat Allah
46'
Z. El Moutaraji← S. Bouhra
59'
Abdelmounaim Boutouil
68'
H. Ahadad← B. Sambou
73'
H. Benayada← A. El Amloud
73'
Muaid El Lafi← A. El Hassouni
78'
M. Allende← T. Zwane
82'
A. Haimoud← R. Jaadi
85'
Hamid Ahdad
90+5'
Marcelo Allende
90+4'
Marcelo AllendeCard upgrade
90+7'
B. Zungu← T. Morena
90+6'
G. Kekana← P. Shalulile

Possession

52%Wydad

Shots

11Wydad

Pass accuracy

51%Wydad

Statistics

WydadMamelodi
Overview
52%Possession48%
11Total Shots6
7Corners1
16Fouls20
Shots
11Total Shots6
2On Target1
6Off Target5
3Blocked0
7Inside Box2
4Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
389Total Passes387
328Accurate Passes310
84%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls20
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards2
1Offsides2

CAF Champions League: Wydad AC 0–0 Mamelodi Sundowns

Wydad AC and Mamelodi Sundowns drew 0-0 in CAF Champions League on May 13, 2023.

Wydad AC controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stade Mohamed V in Casablanca.