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Mamelodi Sundowns vs Wydad AC — CAF Champions League 2019

Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wydad AC
Wydad AC
Ricardo Nascimento 45' (pen)
2/1/2020CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group Stage - 6Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Mamelodi Sundowns58%
×Draw26%
Wydad AC16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamelodi Sundowns
1.52
Wydad AC
0.67

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 127% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 29 away

creates per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
2.07
Wydad AC
0.83

allows per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
0.51
Wydad AC
0.97

finishing

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par
Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamelodi Sundowns ↓

Wydad AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mamelodi Sundowns or draw
84%
Mamelodi Sundowns or Wydad AC
74%
Draw or Wydad AC
42%

Winning margin

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
30%
Wydad AC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
78%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
45%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
20%
Wydad AC 1+ goals
49%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
15%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
78%
Wydad AC (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamelodi Sundowns at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.51 · 41 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 2.07 + Wydad AC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.52

Wydad AC attack 0.83 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
58%
level
26%
Wydad AC scores more
16%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Gastón SirinoMamelodi SundownsMamelodi Sundowns · F
7.8

Match Events

45'
Ricardo NascimentoPenalty
60'
Junior Gbagbo Magbi← Hamza Asrir
65'
Haytham El Bahja← Zouhair El Moutaraji
75'
Phakamani Mahlambi← Lebohang Maboe
76'
Amin Tighazoui← Aymane El Hassouni
88'
Mauricio Affonso← Gastón Sirino
90'
Haytham El Bahja

Possession

60%Mamelodi

Shots

11Mamelodi

Pass accuracy

51%Mamelodi

Statistics

MamelodiWydad
Overview
60%Possession40%
11Total Shots6
7Corners1
17Fouls18
Shots
11Total Shots6
4On Target3
4Off Target0
3Blocked3
8Inside Box3
3Outside Box3
Passing
60%Possession40%
548Total Passes359
470Accurate Passes294
86%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
17Fouls18
0Yellow Cards1
3Offsides3

CAF Champions League: Mamelodi Sundowns 1–0 Wydad AC

Mamelodi Sundowns beat Wydad AC 1-0 in CAF Champions League on February 1, 2020.

Goals: Ricardo Nascimento (45' pen).

Mamelodi Sundowns controlled possession (60%) and registered 11 shots to 6.

The match was played at Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium in Pretoria, GT.