Wydad AC 0–0 Mamelodi Sundowns: Result & Stats

Wydad AC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mamelodi Sundowns

12/7/2019

CAF Champions League · Group Stage - 2Stade Mohamed V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Wydad AC48%

×Draw26%

Mamelodi Sundowns26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wydad ACExpected goals in this matchMamelodi Sundowns

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.03

Wydad AC

1.49

Mamelodi Sundowns

1.03

Wydad AC creates 45% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 41 away

2.14

creates per match

1.63

0.43

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Wydad AC

2.14

Mamelodi Sundowns

1.63

allows per match

Wydad AC

0.43

Mamelodi Sundowns

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

Mamelodi Sundowns →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw

74%

Wydad AC or Mamelodi Sundowns

74%

Draw or Mamelodi Sundowns

52%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+

24%

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals

77%

Wydad AC 2+ goals

44%

Wydad AC 3+ goals

19%

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals

64%

Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals

28%

Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)

65%

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.43 · 28 matches

Mamelodi Sundowns away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.83 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 2.14 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.49

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.63 + Wydad AC defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wydad AC scores more

48%

level

26%

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more

26%

Wydad AC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

Andile Jali

Mamelodi Sundowns · M

8.0

Match Events

39'

Themba Zwane

57'

Badr Gaddarine← Ismail El Haddad

60'

Lebohang Maboe← Jose Ali Meza

62'

Sphelele Mkhulise← Themba Zwane

63'

Badie Aouk

67'

Aymane El Hassouni← Aymane El Hassouni

78'

Walid El Karti← Walid El Karti

83'

Sibusiso Vilakazi← Gastón Sirino

89'

Tebogo Langerman

90'

Badr Gaddarine

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WydadMamelodi

Overview

57%Possession43%

15Total Shots9

6Corners2

14Fouls17

Shots

15Total Shots9

3On Target2

7Off Target6

5Blocked1

5Inside Box4

10Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

455Total Passes349

354Accurate Passes239

78%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls17

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides7