Wydad AC 2–0 Etoile DU Sahel: Result & Stats

Wydad AC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Etoile DU Sahel

Mohammed Nahiri 54', 11'

2/29/2020

CAF Champions League · Quarter-finalsStade Mohamed V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Wydad AC61%

×Draw24%

Etoile DU Sahel15%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wydad ACExpected goals in this matchEtoile DU Sahel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.65

Wydad AC

1.64

Etoile DU Sahel

0.65

Wydad AC creates 152% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

2.14

creates per match

0.86

0.43

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Wydad AC

2.14

Etoile DU Sahel

0.86

allows per match

Wydad AC

0.43

Etoile DU Sahel

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par

Etoile DU Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

Etoile DU Sahel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw

85%

Wydad AC or Etoile DU Sahel

76%

Draw or Etoile DU Sahel

39%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+

34%

Etoile DU Sahel wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals

81%

Wydad AC 2+ goals

49%

Wydad AC 3+ goals

23%

Etoile DU Sahel 1+ goals

48%

Etoile DU Sahel 2+ goals

14%

Etoile DU Sahel 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)

81%

Etoile DU Sahel (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.43 · 28 matches

Etoile DU Sahel away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 2.14 + Etoile DU Sahel defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.64

Etoile DU Sahel attack 0.86 + Wydad AC defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Wydad AC scores more

61%

level

24%

Etoile DU Sahel scores more

15%

Wydad AC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

Mohammed Nahiri

Wydad AC · D

8.4

Match Events

11'

Mohammed Nahiri↳ Ismail El Haddad

39'

40'

45'

53'

54'

Mohammed Nahiri↳ Yahia Attiyat allah

60'

Bahaeddine Sellami← Mohamed Konate

61'

Yassine Chikhaoui← Mohamed Methnani

72'

Kasengu Kazadi← Aymane El Hassouni

72'

Karim Aribi← Souleymane Coulibaly

78'

Badr Gaddarine← Yahia Attiyat allah

86'

Ayoub El Amloud← Ismail El Haddad

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WydadEtoile

Overview

53%Possession47%

13Total Shots8

4Corners2

18Fouls20

Shots

13Total Shots8

6On Target2

5Off Target5

2Blocked1

8Inside Box6

5Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

375Total Passes334

279Accurate Passes222

74%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls20

2Yellow Cards2

8Offsides3