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Etoile DU Sahel vs Wydad AC — CAF Champions League 2019

Etoile DU Sahel
Etoile DU Saheladvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wydad AC
Wydad AC
Karim Aribi 58'
3/7/2020CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Quarter-finalsStade Olympique de Radès

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Etoile DU Sahel49%
×Draw29%
Wydad AC22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etoile DU Sahel
1.29
Wydad AC
0.75

Etoile DU Sahel creates 72% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 29 away

creates per match

Etoile DU Sahel
1.60
Wydad AC
0.83

allows per match

Etoile DU Sahel
0.67
Wydad AC
0.97

finishing

Etoile DU Sahel+0.00on par
Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etoile DU Sahel ↓

Wydad AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Etoile DU Sahel or draw
78%
Etoile DU Sahel or Wydad AC
71%
Draw or Wydad AC
51%

Winning margin

Etoile DU Sahel wins by 2+
23%
Wydad AC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Etoile DU Sahel 1+ goals
72%
Etoile DU Sahel 2+ goals
37%
Etoile DU Sahel 3+ goals
14%
Wydad AC 1+ goals
53%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
17%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Etoile DU Sahel (draw refunded)
69%
Wydad AC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etoile DU Sahel at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etoile DU Sahel attack 1.60 + Wydad AC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.29

Wydad AC attack 0.83 + Etoile DU Sahel defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Etoile DU Sahel scores more
49%
level
29%
Wydad AC scores more
22%

Etoile DU Sahel at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Etoile DU Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
Achraf KrirEtoile DU SahelEtoile DU Sahel · G
7.8

Match Events

50'
Brahim Nakach
58'
Karim Aribi
58'
Darwin Gonzalez← Mohamed Methnani
63'
Badr Gaddarine← Aymane El Hassouni
64'
Iheb Msakni
66'
Ahmed Reda Tagnaouti
71'
Souleymane Coulibaly← Maher Hannachi
84'
Ayoub El Amloud← Ismail El Haddad
86'
Alaya Brigui← Yassine Chikhaoui
87'
Adil Rhaili← Badie Aouk
90'
Yahya Jabrane

Possession

71%Etoile

Shots

22Etoile

Pass accuracy

62%Etoile

Statistics

EtoileWydad
Overview
71%Possession29%
22Total Shots9
8Corners1
17Fouls17
Shots
22Total Shots9
6On Target2
11Off Target5
5Blocked2
14Inside Box5
8Outside Box4
Passing
71%Possession29%
580Total Passes236
459Accurate Passes114
79%Pass Accuracy48%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
17Fouls17
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Etoile DU Sahel vs Wydad AC

Etoile DU Sahel beat Wydad AC 1-0 in CAF Champions League on March 7, 2020.

Goals: Karim Aribi (58').

Etoile DU Sahel controlled possession (71%) and registered 22 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade Olympique de Radès in Radès.