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Wydad AC vs CR Belouizdad — CAF Champions League 2019

Wydad AC
Wydad AC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CR Belouizdad
CR Belouizdad
4/23/2022CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Quarter-finalsStade Mohamed V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Wydad AC61%
×Draw24%
CR Belouizdad14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wydad AC
1.63
CR Belouizdad
0.64

Wydad AC creates 155% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 26 away

creates per match

Wydad AC
2.14
CR Belouizdad
0.85

allows per match

Wydad AC
0.43
CR Belouizdad
1.12

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par
CR Belouizdad+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

CR Belouizdad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw
86%
Wydad AC or CR Belouizdad
76%
Draw or CR Belouizdad
39%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+
34%
CR Belouizdad wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals
80%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
48%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
22%
CR Belouizdad 1+ goals
47%
CR Belouizdad 2+ goals
14%
CR Belouizdad 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)
81%
CR Belouizdad (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.43 · 28 matches

CR Belouizdad away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 2.14 + CR Belouizdad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.63

CR Belouizdad attack 0.85 + Wydad AC defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Wydad AC scores more
61%
level
24%
CR Belouizdad scores more
14%

Wydad AC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
M. BoucharCR BelouizdadCR Belouizdad · D
7.7

Match Events

46'
Chemseddine Nessakh
46'
K. Aribi← K. Merzougui
56'
Karim Aribi
63'
Amine Farhane
63'
H. Khalfallah← L. Tabti
64'
A. Djarrar← M. Belkhir
65'
Zakaria Draoui
77'
J. Tsoumou← Z. El-Moutaraji
77'
S. Benyachou← G. Mbenza
79'
A. Ait Abdessalem← M. Belkhiter
79'
A. Bouras← Z. Draoui
86'
Muaid Ellafi
86'
Toufik Moussaoui
88'
Toufik MoussaouiCard upgrade
90+6'
Ahmed Ait AbdesslemPenalty cancelled
90+4'
H. Asrir← A. Hassouni
90+3'
M. Rahim← Muaid Ellafi

Possession

54%Wydad

Shots

7Wydad

Pass accuracy

52%Wydad

Statistics

WydadCR
Overview
54%Possession46%
7Total Shots8
0Corners5
21Fouls15
Shots
7Total Shots8
2On Target2
3Off Target4
2Blocked2
3Inside Box6
4Outside Box2
Passing
54%Possession46%
473Total Passes385
384Accurate Passes288
81%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
21Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Wydad AC vs CR Belouizdad

Wydad AC and CR Belouizdad drew 0-0 in CAF Champions League on April 23, 2022.

Wydad AC controlled possession (54%) and registered 7 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stade Mohamed V in Casablanca.