CR Belouizdad 0–1 Wydad AC: Result & Stats

CR Belouizdad

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Wydad AC

G. Mbenza 46'

4/16/2022

CAF Champions League · Quarter-finalsStade du 5 Juillet 1962

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

CR Belouizdad55%

×Draw27%

Wydad AC19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CR BelouizdadExpected goals in this matchWydad AC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.73

CR Belouizdad

1.46

Wydad AC

0.73

CR Belouizdad creates 100% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 29 away

1.96

creates per match

0.83

0.63

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

CR Belouizdad

1.96

Wydad AC

0.83

allows per match

CR Belouizdad

0.63

Wydad AC

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CR Belouizdad+0.00on par

Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CR Belouizdad ↓

Wydad AC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

CR Belouizdad or draw

81%

CR Belouizdad or Wydad AC

73%

Draw or Wydad AC

45%

Winning margin

CR Belouizdad wins by 2+

28%

Wydad AC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

CR Belouizdad 1+ goals

77%

CR Belouizdad 2+ goals

43%

CR Belouizdad 3+ goals

18%

Wydad AC 1+ goals

52%

Wydad AC 2+ goals

17%

Wydad AC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

CR Belouizdad (draw refunded)

74%

Wydad AC (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CR Belouizdad at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.63 · 27 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CR Belouizdad attack 1.96 + Wydad AC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.46

Wydad AC attack 0.83 + CR Belouizdad defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

CR Belouizdad scores more

55%

level

27%

Wydad AC scores more

19%

CR Belouizdad at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "CR Belouizdad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

A. Tagnaouti

Wydad AC · G

8.3

Match Events

6'

Jalal DaoudiCard upgrade

7'

Jalal Daoudi

46'

G. Mbenza↳ A. El Amloud

62'

K. Merzougui← M. Belkhir

62'

J. Tsoumou← G. Mbenza

62'

A. Serrhat← Z. El-Moutaraji

64'

K. Bousseliou← M. Bakir

77'

H. Khalfallah← H. Selmi

83'

M. Rahim← Muaid Ellafi

86'

Karim Aribi

90+1'

Ahmed Reda Tagnaouti

90+3'

H. Asrir← A. Hassouni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CRWydad

Overview

75%Possession25%

23Total Shots5

7Corners3

7Fouls8

Shots

23Total Shots5

5On Target2

11Off Target2

7Blocked1

11Inside Box3

12Outside Box2

Passing

75%Possession25%

634Total Passes215

546Accurate Passes135

86%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

2Offsides4