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Wydad AC vs Chabab RIF Hoceima — Botola Pro 2025

Wydad AC
Wydad AC
FT
6 – 1
Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
4/1/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 23Stade Père-Jégo (Casablanca)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wydad AC65%
×Draw22%
Chabab RIF Hoceima13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wydad AC
1.86
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.69

Wydad AC creates 170% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 15 away

creates per match

Wydad AC
1.79
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.53

allows per match

Wydad AC
0.84
Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.93

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par
Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

Chabab RIF Hoceima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw
87%
Wydad AC or Chabab RIF Hoceima
78%
Draw or Chabab RIF Hoceima
35%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+
39%
Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals
84%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
55%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
28%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
50%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
15%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)
83%
Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.84 · 120 matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 1.79 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.86

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 0.53 + Wydad AC defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Wydad AC scores more
65%
level
22%
Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
13%

Wydad AC at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wydad AC vs Chabab RIF Hoceima

Wydad AC beat Chabab RIF Hoceima 6-1 in Botola Pro on April 1, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Père-Jégo (Casablanca).