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Chabab RIF Hoceima vs Wydad AC — Botola Pro 2025

Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
FT
2 – 1
Wydad AC
Wydad AC
11/11/2018Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 8Stade de football d'Imzouren (Imzouren)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima30%
×Draw27%
Wydad AC44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.11
Wydad AC
1.40

Wydad AC creates 26% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 120 away

creates per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.27
Wydad AC
1.32

allows per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.47
Wydad AC
0.96

finishing

Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par
Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab RIF Hoceima ↓

Wydad AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Chabab RIF Hoceima or draw
56%
Chabab RIF Hoceima or Wydad AC
73%
Draw or Wydad AC
70%

Winning margin

Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
12%
Wydad AC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
67%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
30%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
10%
Wydad AC 1+ goals
75%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
41%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
41%
Wydad AC (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab RIF Hoceima at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.96 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 1.27 + Wydad AC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.11

Wydad AC attack 1.32 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
30%
level
27%
Wydad AC scores more
44%

Wydad AC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chabab RIF Hoceima vs Wydad AC

Chabab RIF Hoceima beat Wydad AC 2-1 in Botola Pro on November 11, 2018.

The match was played at Stade de football d'Imzouren (Imzouren).