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Wydad AC vs ASEC Mimosas — CAF Champions League 2019

Wydad AC
Wydad AC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ASEC Mimosas
ASEC Mimosas
3/2/2024CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group B - 6Stade de Marrakech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Wydad AC58%
×Draw28%
ASEC Mimosas14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wydad AC
1.39
ASEC Mimosas
0.54

Wydad AC creates 157% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 11 away

creates per match

Wydad AC
2.14
ASEC Mimosas
0.64

allows per match

Wydad AC
0.43
ASEC Mimosas
0.64

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par
ASEC Mimosas+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

ASEC Mimosas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw
86%
Wydad AC or ASEC Mimosas
72%
Draw or ASEC Mimosas
42%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+
29%
ASEC Mimosas wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals
75%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
40%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
16%
ASEC Mimosas 1+ goals
42%
ASEC Mimosas 2+ goals
10%
ASEC Mimosas 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)
80%
ASEC Mimosas (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.43 · 28 matches

ASEC Mimosas away — creates 0.64, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 2.14 + ASEC Mimosas defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.39

ASEC Mimosas attack 0.64 + Wydad AC defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Wydad AC scores more
58%
level
28%
ASEC Mimosas scores more
14%

Wydad AC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wydad AC vs ASEC Mimosas

Wydad AC beat ASEC Mimosas 1-0 in CAF Champions League on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Marrakech in Marrakech.