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ASEC Mimosas vs Wydad AC — CAF Champions League 2019

ASEC Mimosas
ASEC Mimosas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wydad AC
Wydad AC
12/2/2023CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group B - 2Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

ASEC Mimosas52%
×Draw30%
Wydad AC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASEC Mimosas
1.25
Wydad AC
0.60

ASEC Mimosas creates 108% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 30 away

creates per match

ASEC Mimosas
1.56
Wydad AC
0.87

allows per match

ASEC Mimosas
0.33
Wydad AC
0.93

finishing

ASEC Mimosas+0.00on par
Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASEC Mimosas ↓

Wydad AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

ASEC Mimosas or draw
82%
ASEC Mimosas or Wydad AC
70%
Draw or Wydad AC
48%

Winning margin

ASEC Mimosas wins by 2+
24%
Wydad AC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

ASEC Mimosas 1+ goals
71%
ASEC Mimosas 2+ goals
36%
ASEC Mimosas 3+ goals
13%
Wydad AC 1+ goals
45%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
12%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

ASEC Mimosas (draw refunded)
75%
Wydad AC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASEC Mimosas at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.33 · 9 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 0.87, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASEC Mimosas attack 1.56 + Wydad AC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.25

Wydad AC attack 0.87 + ASEC Mimosas defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

ASEC Mimosas scores more
52%
level
30%
Wydad AC scores more
18%

ASEC Mimosas at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "ASEC Mimosas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: ASEC Mimosas 1–0 Wydad AC

ASEC Mimosas beat Wydad AC 1-0 in CAF Champions League on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny in Abidjan.