Wycombe 1–2 Stockport County: Result & Stats

Wycombe

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Stockport County

J. Mullins 74'

J. Diamond 51'

K. Wootton 9'

8/9/2025

League One · Round 2Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Wycombe50%

×Draw24%

Stockport County26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchStockport County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.19

Wycombe

1.73

Stockport County

1.19

Wycombe creates 45% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

1.89

creates per match

1.21

1.17

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Wycombe

1.89

Stockport County

1.21

allows per match

Wycombe

1.17

Stockport County

1.57

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Wycombe-0.07on par

Stockport County-0.08on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Stockport County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

74%

Wycombe or Stockport County

76%

Draw or Stockport County

50%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

27%

Stockport County wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

82%

Wycombe 2+ goals

52%

Wycombe 3+ goals

25%

Stockport County 1+ goals

70%

Stockport County 2+ goals

33%

Stockport County 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

65%

Stockport County (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.17 · 11 matches

Stockport County away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.57 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.89 + Stockport County defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.73

Stockport County attack 1.21 + Wycombe defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wycombe scores more

50%

level

24%

Stockport County scores more

26%

Wycombe at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Diamond

Stockport County · F

9.2

Match Events

9'

K. Wootton↳ J. Diamond

19'

Daniel Harvie

51'

J. Diamond↳ O. Moxon

57'

J. Grimmer← D. Casey

58'

J. Tilley← A. Quitirna

58'

R. Kone← D. Udoh

58'

A. Lowry← F. Onyedinma

65'

Connor Taylor

65'

N. Lowe← C. Camps

66'

O. Bailey← J. Olowu

68'

C. Boyd-Munce← G. Abbott

74'

J. Mullins↳ A. Lowry

78'

Luke Leahy

81'

Odin Bailey

87'

D. Andrew← J. Diamond

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WycombeStockport

Overview

58%Possession42%

14Total Shots10

1.66Expected Goals (xG)0.74

8Corners4

8Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots10

6On Target4

4Off Target1

4Blocked5

9Inside Box6

5Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

492Total Passes358

430Accurate Passes296

87%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

5Offsides1