Stockport County 0–5 Wycombe: Result & Stats

Stockport County

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Wycombe

A. Morley 77'

F. Onyedinma 70', 11'

R. Kone 18', 10' (pen)

11/5/2024

League One · Round 11Edgeley Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Stockport County43%

×Draw24%

Wycombe33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stockport CountyExpected goals in this matchWycombe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.44

Stockport County

1.68

Wycombe

1.44

Stockport County creates 17% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

1.56

creates per match

1.64

1.25

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Stockport County

1.56

Wycombe

1.64

allows per match

Stockport County

1.25

Wycombe

1.80

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

Stockport County+0.24scores more

Wycombe-0.47scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockport County ↓

Wycombe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Stockport County or draw

67%

Stockport County or Wycombe

76%

Draw or Wycombe

57%

Winning margin

Stockport County wins by 2+

22%

Wycombe wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Stockport County 1+ goals

81%

Stockport County 2+ goals

50%

Stockport County 3+ goals

24%

Wycombe 1+ goals

76%

Wycombe 2+ goals

42%

Wycombe 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Stockport County (draw refunded)

57%

Wycombe (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockport County at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.80 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockport County attack 1.56 + Wycombe defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.68

Wycombe attack 1.64 + Stockport County defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stockport County scores more

43%

level

24%

Wycombe scores more

33%

Stockport County at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44

F. Onyedinma

Wycombe · M

9.3

Match Events

9'

Fraser Horsfall

10'

R. KonePenalty

11'

18'

21'

46'

46'

M. Southam-Hales← C. Connolly

46'

I. Olaofe← L. Fiorini

47'

Ethan Pye

66'

O. Bailey← I. Touray

70'

F. Onyedinma↳ C. Humphreys

77'

A. Morley↳ F. Onyedinma

78'

O. Norwood← L. Barry

79'

L. Leahy← D. Udoh

79'

T. Bakinson← C. Humphreys

80'

D. Wheeler← F. Onyedinma

80'

B. Lubala← R. Kone

85'

M. Butcher← J. Scowen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StockportWycombe

Overview

51%Possession49%

4Total Shots15

6Corners5

19Fouls14

Shots

4Total Shots15

0On Target10

0Off Target3

4Blocked2

1Inside Box9

3Outside Box6

Passing

51%Possession49%

366Total Passes356

235Accurate Passes212

64%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

19Fouls14

3Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1