Wycombe 1–3 Portsmouth: Result & Stats | League One

Wycombe

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Portsmouth

M. Butcher 7'

C. Saydee 67'

C. Bishop 28', 3'

3/29/2024

League One · Round 41Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Wycombe39%

×Draw27%

Portsmouth34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.20

Wycombe

1.31

Portsmouth

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 159 home / 134 away

1.51

creates per match

1.34

1.05

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Wycombe

1.51

Portsmouth

1.34

allows per match

Wycombe

1.05

Portsmouth

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par

Portsmouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

66%

Wycombe or Portsmouth

73%

Draw or Portsmouth

61%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

18%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

73%

Wycombe 2+ goals

38%

Wycombe 3+ goals

14%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

70%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

34%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

54%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.05 · 159 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.51 + Portsmouth defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.31

Portsmouth attack 1.34 + Wycombe defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wycombe scores more

39%

level

27%

Portsmouth scores more

34%

Wycombe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

C. Bishop

Portsmouth · F

8.3

Match Events

3'

7'

28'

30'

57'

60'

64'

64'

64'

67'

75'

75'

C. Forino-Joseph← L. Leahy

81'

J. McCarthy← J. Grimmer

81'

J. Rafferty← Z. Swanson

81'

87'

88'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WycombePortsmouth

Overview

38%Possession62%

9Total Shots16

4Corners3

16Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots16

2On Target11

5Off Target2

2Blocked3

4Inside Box12

5Outside Box4

Passing

38%Possession62%

272Total Passes466

153Accurate Passes332

56%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls8

2Yellow Cards3