Portsmouth 2–1 Wycombe: Result & Stats | League One

Portsmouth

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Wycombe

C. Shaughnessy 90+8'

C. Bishop 58'

J. Scowen 22'

10/3/2023

League One · Round 11Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Portsmouth46%

×Draw25%

Wycombe29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortsmouthExpected goals in this matchWycombe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.15

Portsmouth

1.52

Wycombe

1.15

Portsmouth creates 32% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 159 away

1.72

creates per match

1.28

1.01

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Portsmouth

1.72

Wycombe

1.28

allows per match

Portsmouth

1.01

Wycombe

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portsmouth+0.00on par

Wycombe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Wycombe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw

71%

Portsmouth or Wycombe

75%

Draw or Wycombe

54%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+

23%

Wycombe wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals

78%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

45%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

20%

Wycombe 1+ goals

68%

Wycombe 2+ goals

32%

Wycombe 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

61%

Wycombe (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.01 · 137 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.31 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.72 + Wycombe defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.52

Wycombe attack 1.28 + Portsmouth defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Portsmouth scores more

46%

level

25%

Wycombe scores more

29%

Portsmouth at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Sparkes

Portsmouth · D

7.9

Match Events

20'

Josh Scowen

22'

J. Scowen↳ L. Leahy

40'

Luke Leahy

55'

C. Saydee← T. Anjorin

58'

C. Bishop↳ A. Kamara

63'

Alex Robertson

66'

D. Taylor← S. Vokes

67'

R. Tafazolli← H. Boyes

71'

Regan Poole

72'

Brandon Hanlan

78'

G. Whyte← P. Lane

80'

K. Phillips← B. Hanlan

90+1'

Ryan Tafazolli

90+9'

S. Raggett← A. Robertson

90+4'

K. Sadlier← G. McCleary

90+8'

C. Shaughnessy↳ J. Sparkes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortsmouthWycombe

Overview

66%Possession34%

11Total Shots8

14Corners2

8Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots8

3On Target1

7Off Target6

1Blocked1

7Inside Box7

4Outside Box1

Passing

66%Possession34%

484Total Passes263

359Accurate Passes143

74%Pass Accuracy54%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2

League One: Portsmouth 2–1 Wycombe

Portsmouth beat Wycombe 2-1 in League One on October 3, 2023.

Goals: J. Scowen (22'), C. Bishop (58'), C. Shaughnessy (90+8').

Portsmouth controlled possession (66%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.

Portsmouth vs Wycombe — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Portsmouth 2–1 Wycombe