Wycombe 0–3 Nottingham Forest: Result & Stats

Wycombe

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Nottingham Forest

A. Knockaert 72'

G. Murray 54' (pen), 7'

2/6/2021

Championship · Round 28Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wycombe27%

×Draw30%

Nottingham Forest43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

1.19

Wycombe

0.89

Nottingham Forest

1.19

Nottingham Forest creates 34% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 95 away

0.74

creates per match

1.16

1.22

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Wycombe

0.74

Nottingham Forest

1.16

allows per match

Wycombe

1.22

Nottingham Forest

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Nottingham Forest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–115%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

57%

Wycombe or Nottingham Forest

70%

Draw or Nottingham Forest

73%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

9%

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

59%

Wycombe 2+ goals

22%

Wycombe 3+ goals

6%

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

70%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

33%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

39%

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 0.74 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.89

Nottingham Forest attack 1.16 + Wycombe defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Wycombe scores more

27%

level

30%

Nottingham Forest scores more

43%

Nottingham Forest at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

G. Murray

Nottingham Forest · F

8.7

Match Events

7'

G. Murray↳ G. Bong

54'

G. MurrayPenalty

62'

G. McCleary← F. Onyedinma

62'

A. Mehmeti← M. Bloomfield

67'

C. Thompson← N. Ofoborh

71'

J. Lolley← L. Freeman

72'

A. Knockaert↳ J. Lolley

76'

A. Samuel← D. Horgan

76'

A. Akinfenwa← U. Ikpeazu

76'

L. Taylor← G. Murray

82'

J. Colback← Cafú

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WycombeNottingham

Overview

40%Possession60%

11Total Shots17

3Corners6

17Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots17

1On Target5

7Off Target8

3Blocked4

7Inside Box11

4Outside Box6

Passing

40%Possession60%

256Total Passes404

145Accurate Passes283

57%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls12

1Offsides0