Nottingham Forest 2–0 Wycombe: Result & Stats

Nottingham Forest

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Wycombe

L. Taylor 74', 28'

11/7/2020

Championship · Round 11The City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Nottingham Forest52%

×Draw25%

Wycombe23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham ForestExpected goals in this matchWycombe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.98

Nottingham Forest

1.59

Wycombe

0.98

Nottingham Forest creates 62% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 23 away

1.41

creates per match

0.96

1.00

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Nottingham Forest

1.41

Wycombe

0.96

allows per match

Nottingham Forest

1.00

Wycombe

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Wycombe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Wycombe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw

77%

Nottingham Forest or Wycombe

75%

Draw or Wycombe

48%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

27%

Wycombe wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

80%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

47%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

21%

Wycombe 1+ goals

62%

Wycombe 2+ goals

26%

Wycombe 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

69%

Wycombe (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 95 matches

Wycombe away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.41 + Wycombe defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.59

Wycombe attack 0.96 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more

52%

level

25%

Wycombe scores more

23%

Nottingham Forest at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

L. Taylor

Nottingham Forest · F

8.9

Match Events

12'

Miguel Ángel Guerrero

28'

L. Taylor↳ C. Christie

46'

R. Yates← S. Sow

56'

A. Akinfenwa← D. Wheeler

56'

G. McCleary← S. Kashket

67'

68'

74'

76'

78'

A. Samuel← A. Mehmeti

90'

Jack Grimmer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottinghamWycombe

Overview

60%Possession40%

13Total Shots12

6Corners8

12Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots12

5On Target5

7Off Target3

1Blocked4

11Inside Box8

2Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

461Total Passes299

345Accurate Passes181

75%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2