Wycombe 0–2 Norwich: Result & Stats | Championship

Wycombe

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Norwich

A. Idah 87'

T. Pukki 51'

2/28/2021

Championship · Round 33Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wycombe29%

×Draw28%

Norwich43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.32

Wycombe

1.02

Norwich

1.32

Norwich creates 29% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 138 away

0.74

creates per match

1.43

1.22

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Wycombe

0.74

Norwich

1.43

allows per match

Wycombe

1.22

Norwich

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par

Norwich+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

57%

Wycombe or Norwich

72%

Draw or Norwich

71%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

11%

Norwich wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

64%

Wycombe 2+ goals

27%

Wycombe 3+ goals

8%

Norwich 1+ goals

73%

Norwich 2+ goals

38%

Norwich 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

40%

Norwich (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.30 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 0.74 + Norwich defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.02

Norwich attack 1.43 + Wycombe defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Wycombe scores more

29%

level

28%

Norwich scores more

43%

Norwich at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

E. Buendía

Norwich · M

8.0

Match Events

51'

52'

57'

60'

67'

D. Horgan← A. Mehmeti

67'

J. Jacobson← J. Obita

68'

S. Kashket← G. McCleary

68'

N. Ofoborh← D. Gape

68'

C. Thompson← D. Wheeler

74'

Emiliano Buendía

84'

A. Idah← O. Hernández

85'

L. Rupp← M. Vrančić

87'

A. Idah

88'

C. Zimmermann← T. Pukki

90+2'

P. Płacheta← E. Buendía

90+2'

J. Sørensen← O. Skipp

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WycombeNorwich

Overview

27%Possession73%

8Total Shots19

5Corners4

18Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots19

1On Target5

5Off Target11

2Blocked3

4Inside Box15

4Outside Box4

Passing

27%Possession73%

196Total Passes530

104Accurate Passes447

53%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls8

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1