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Norwich vs Wycombe — Championship 2018

Norwich
Norwich
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Wycombe
Wycombe
M. Vrančić 90+1'
T. Pukki 3'
S. Kashket 12'
10/24/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 7Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Norwich54%
×Draw24%
Wycombe22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norwich
1.75
Wycombe
1.04

Norwich creates 68% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 23 away

creates per match

Norwich
1.71
Wycombe
0.96

allows per match

Norwich
1.13
Wycombe
1.78

finishing

Norwich+0.00on par
Wycombe+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Wycombe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Norwich or draw
78%
Norwich or Wycombe
76%
Draw or Wycombe
46%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+
30%
Wycombe wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals
83%
Norwich 2+ goals
52%
Norwich 3+ goals
25%
Wycombe 1+ goals
65%
Wycombe 2+ goals
28%
Wycombe 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)
71%
Wycombe (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.13 · 139 matches

Wycombe away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.71 + Wycombe defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.75

Wycombe attack 0.96 + Norwich defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Norwich scores more
54%
level
24%
Wycombe scores more
22%

Norwich at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
M. VrančićNorwichNorwich · M
7.9

Match Events

3'
T. Pukki↳ E. Buendía
12'
S. Kashket↳ D. Wheeler
15'
Ben Gibson
45'
Fred Onyedinma
58'
A. Idah← J. Hugill
68'
M. Vrančić← O. Skipp
69'
U. Ikpeazu← S. Kashket
84'
M. Bloomfield← D. Horgan
85'
P. Płacheta← L. Rupp
90'
Adam Idah
90+3'
A. Akinfenwa← D. Wheeler
90+1'
M. Vrančić

Possession

75%Norwich

Shots

25Norwich

Pass accuracy

64%Norwich

Statistics

NorwichWycombe
Overview
75%Possession25%
25Total Shots8
10Corners6
14Fouls14
Shots
25Total Shots8
6On Target2
9Off Target4
10Blocked2
16Inside Box7
9Outside Box1
Passing
75%Possession25%
564Total Passes176
493Accurate Passes85
87%Pass Accuracy48%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls14
1Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
3Offsides2

Championship: Norwich 2–1 Wycombe

Norwich beat Wycombe 2-1 in Championship on October 24, 2020.

Goals: T. Pukki (3'), S. Kashket (12'), M. Vrančić (90+1').

Norwich controlled possession (75%) and registered 25 shots to 8.

The match was played at Carrow Road in Norwich, Norfolk.