Wycombe 1–3 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Wycombe

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Middlesbrough

U. Ikpeazu 3'

C. Akpom 81'

M. Tavernier 36'

M. Browne 30'

1/2/2021

Championship · Round 23Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wycombe30%

×Draw28%

Middlesbrough42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.29

Wycombe

1.04

Middlesbrough

1.29

Middlesbrough creates 24% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 185 away

0.74

creates per match

1.37

1.22

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Wycombe

0.74

Middlesbrough

1.37

allows per match

Wycombe

1.22

Middlesbrough

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par

Middlesbrough+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

58%

Wycombe or Middlesbrough

72%

Draw or Middlesbrough

70%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

11%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

65%

Wycombe 2+ goals

28%

Wycombe 3+ goals

9%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

72%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

37%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

42%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.34 · 185 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 0.74 + Middlesbrough defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.04

Middlesbrough attack 1.37 + Wycombe defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wycombe scores more

30%

level

28%

Middlesbrough scores more

42%

Middlesbrough at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Akpom

Middlesbrough · F

8.5

Match Events

3'

U. Ikpeazu↳ J. Grimmer

30'

M. Browne↳ P. McNair

36'

M. Tavernier↳ C. Akpom

43'

Anis Mehmeti

58'

S. Kashket← A. Mehmeti

66'

Marc Bola

69'

Marcus Bettinelli

69'

D. Adeniran← C. Thompson

70'

Josh Knight

71'

D. Spence← M. Browne

77'

F. Onyedinma← D. Horgan

77'

A. Akinfenwa← U. Ikpeazu

81'

C. Akpom

83'

Marcus Tavernier

89'

B. Assombalonga← C. Akpom

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WycombeMiddlesbrough

Overview

40%Possession60%

12Total Shots21

6Corners10

14Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots21

2On Target7

5Off Target7

5Blocked7

10Inside Box17

2Outside Box4

Passing

40%Possession60%

246Total Passes353

133Accurate Passes230

54%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls9

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides4