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Middlesbrough vs Wycombe — Championship 2018

Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Wycombe
Wycombe
J. McCarthy 56'
G. McCleary 33'
F. Onyedinma 14'
5/8/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 46Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Middlesbrough52%
×Draw25%
Wycombe23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middlesbrough
1.58
Wycombe
0.96

Middlesbrough creates 65% more chances

Season form · 188 home / 23 away

creates per match

Middlesbrough
1.38
Wycombe
0.96

allows per match

Middlesbrough
0.96
Wycombe
1.78

finishing

Middlesbrough+0.00on par
Wycombe+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Wycombe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw
77%
Middlesbrough or Wycombe
75%
Draw or Wycombe
48%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+
27%
Wycombe wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals
79%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
47%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
21%
Wycombe 1+ goals
62%
Wycombe 2+ goals
25%
Wycombe 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
69%
Wycombe (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.96 · 188 matches

Wycombe away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.38 + Wycombe defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.58

Wycombe attack 0.96 + Middlesbrough defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Middlesbrough scores more
52%
level
25%
Wycombe scores more
23%

Middlesbrough at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
R. TafazolliWycombeWycombe · D
8.5

Match Events

14'
F. Onyedinma↳ R. Tafazolli
33'
G. McCleary↳ U. Ikpeazu
45'
Dennis Adeniran
46'
C. Akpom← D. Spence
46'
C. Malley← M. Johnson
56'
J. McCarthy↳ R. Tafazolli
74'
D. Horgan← G. McCleary
74'
D. Wheeler← D. Adeniran
76'
J. Coburn← H. Coulson
83'
A. Samuel← U. Ikpeazu
83'
A. Mehmeti← A. Muskwe
89'
J. Robinson← G. Saville
89'
H. Hackney← Y. Bolasie
90'
M. Bloomfield← C. Thompson

Possession

53%Middlesbrough

Shots

5Middlesbrough

Pass accuracy

50%Middlesbrough

Statistics

MiddlesbroughWycombe
Overview
53%Possession47%
5Total Shots16
6Corners6
11Fouls15
Shots
5Total Shots16
0On Target5
2Off Target6
3Blocked5
2Inside Box9
3Outside Box7
Passing
53%Possession47%
324Total Passes275
227Accurate Passes193
70%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
11Fouls15
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Middlesbrough vs Wycombe

Wycombe beat Middlesbrough 3-0 in Championship on May 8, 2021.

Goals: F. Onyedinma (14'), G. McCleary (33'), J. McCarthy (56').

Middlesbrough controlled possession (53%) and registered 5 shots to 16.

The match was played at Riverside Stadium in Middlesbrough.